Why it won\u2019t happen:<\/em> The reasons are many. Start with the reality that Biden hasn\u2019t committed any fireable offenses as vice president and isn\u2019t an electoral drag in any way. We\u2019re not talking about Spiro Agnew or Dan Quayle here.<\/p>\nThere\u2019s also the fact that vice-presidential candidates, even when they\u2019re popular and generate lots of buzz, don\u2019t move voters in November. Just remember: The biggest V.P. mismatch of all time, between Lloyd Bentsen and Quayle in 1988, ended up being worth nothing to Michael Dukakis.<\/p>\n
Plus, if Obama did make the switch, wouldn\u2019t the media portray it as a desperate move \u2013 an embattled president panicking at meager poll numbers? That would only reinforce Republican efforts to caricature the Obama White House as a flailing, chaotic operation. And why would Hillary even want the job? It wouldn\u2019t improve her positioning for 2016, if that\u2019s what she\u2019s interested in; she\u2019s already the Democratic Party\u2019s biggest star not named Obama. But if she did take Biden\u2019s place, the general election would (unfairly) be portrayed as a referendum on her popularity. A defeat would be blamed on her and would hurt her positioning for \u201916.<\/p>\n
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2. Chris Christie, GOP running mate<\/strong><\/p>\nThe idea:<\/em> He\u2019s the breakout Republican star of the past two years, an unusually compelling communicator who\u2019s won in a big blue state and who could have been the party\u2019s presidential nominee if he\u2019d decided to run \u2013 and he passes the right\u2019s abortion litmus test. Sounds like a dream addition to the national ticket for the GOP.<\/p>\nWhy we\u2019ll hear about it:<\/em> Because the political media loves talking about Christie almost as much as it loves veepstakes stories \u2013 and because in many ways, Christie really does make sense as a V.P. prospect. Plus, if Mitt Romney wraps up the nomination early, what else will we talk about in the run-up to the August GOP convention?<\/p>\nWhy it won\u2019t happen:<\/em> Because Christie is not a good match for the most likely nominee, Mitt Romney, who must contend with a conservative base that is deeply suspicious of him. Thus will Romney, if he is the nominee, be under enormous pressure to use his running-mate pick to prove to the right that he\u2019s really one of them and that his will be a fundamentally conservative administration. And Christie, who has strayed from Obama-era conservative orthodoxy on immigration, guns and Muslims, is too closely associated with the moderate\/Northeast sensibility that Romney (in the eyes of the right) embodies. There\u2019d also be the risk that Christie would overshadow Romney with his charisma \u2013 and cause headaches with his penchant for unpredictable antics.<\/p>\nChristie might make more sense as a No. 2 for a different GOP nominee \u2013 Rick Perry, say. But the odds of someone besides Romney winning the nomination seem to be dimming. And if a non-Romney candidate does prevail, it will decrease the GOP\u2019s odds of winning in the fall, making the No. 2 slot that much less attractive to Christie, who already enjoys being governor of New Jersey and who risks losing his 2013 reelection campaign there the more he focuses on national politics.<\/p>\n
3. The Donald might run as an independent!<\/strong><\/p>\nThe idea:<\/em> Donald Trump, who flirted with a bid for the Republican nomination earlier this year, will mount a third-party bid for president in 2012.<\/p>\nWhy we\u2019ll hear about it:<\/em> You might have noticed that the media likes to pay attention to Donald Trump, who just changed his registration to independent and who has been intermittently threatening to run. Plus, a group called Americans Elect has secured 50-state ballot access for a candidate who will be chosen through an online convention in the spring, guaranteeing that there will be all sorts of speculation about independent candidates in early \u201912.<\/p>\nWhy it won\u2019t happen:<\/em> In lieu of a detailed explanation, I simply refer you to the $184.27 Donald J. Trump Challenge \u2013 the contest I ran earlier this year when Trump was last pretending to be interested in running for president.<\/p>\n4. The unmotivated conservative base<\/strong><\/p>\nThe idea:<\/em> Tea Party Republicans, dejected by their party\u2019s selection of Mitt Romney as its presidential nominee, end up sitting out the general election, allowing Barack Obama to win a second term.<\/p>\nWhy we\u2019ll hear about it:<\/em> When Obama was elected, the GOP base recommitted itself to \u201cpure\u201d conservatism based on a belief that the apostasies of Bush-era Republican leaders had given the ideology a bad name and enabled Obama\u2019s rise. And the right\u2019s suspicion that Romney is at heart a \u201cbig government\u201d Republican is real; it\u2019s no accident that he hasn\u2019t been able to push past 30 percent in GOP polls all year, despite numerous meltdowns by his rivals.<\/p>\nWhy it won\u2019t happen:<\/em> Because no matter how real conservatives\u2019 reservations about Romney are, they\u2019re nothing compared to their animosity toward Obama. After all, what the Tea Party movement really represents is the right\u2019s hysterical overreaction to the emergence of a Democratic president \u2013 something we\u2019ve seen before in modern history. So while the average conservative may prefer that the GOP nominate someone besides Romney, the chance to rid the White House of a radical socialist usurper will provide more than sufficient motivation to turn out in November. It\u2019s also worth keeping in mind that Romney is actually very well-liked by Republican voters, even if they haven\u2019t all flocked to his campaign. At the end of the day, they\u2019ll be there for him if he\u2019s the nominee.<\/p>\n5. Obama\u2019s gay marriage admission<\/strong><\/p>\nThe idea:<\/em> The president will finally endorse same-sex marriage.<\/p>\nWhy we\u2019ll hear about it:<\/em> Because it seems like only a matter of time before he does. In fact, he already did once before, back in 1996 when he was running for the state Senate in a solidly liberal Chicago district, and he\u2019s been doing everything he can short of actually saying it to send the message that, deep down inside, he\u2019s fine with gay marriage.<\/p>\nWhy it won\u2019t happen:<\/em> 2012 is an election year, Obama\u2019s political position is tenuous, and while gay marriage is steadily gaining acceptance among voters, endorsing it could still cause problems in key swing states like Ohio. The White House has apparently settled on a strategy of letting other administration figures speak out more forcefully and seems dedicated to making the \u201912 campaign about Republican extremism and obstructionism and (assuming he\u2019s the nominee) Romney\u2019s status as a top 1 percenter. Gay marriage very much feels like something that President (or former President) Obama will get around to endorsing in 2013.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Article: The Biggest 2012 Political Red Herrings by Steve Kornacki in Salon The Text: There are all sorts of uncertainties about how the political world will evolve in 2012, but we can say with confidence that an awful lot of the media\u2019s oxygen will be sucked up by red herrings \u2013 seemingly big and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[259],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
The Red Herrings That Will Shape 2012 - Prose Before Hos<\/title>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\t \n\t \n\t \n