‘Mea Culpa’ In The Middle East
The Article: Mideast analysts, mea culpa time by Hussein Ibish in Lebanon Now.
The Text: A year and a half into the emergence of a new Middle East in the context of the Arab uprisings, it behooves commentators who have been tracking these events to step back and assess our own evaluations. Thereās no point in dwelling on what we think weāve gotten right. Whatās more important is where we can see we have gone wrong, and why. Taking note of these missteps provides valuable lessons for reading ongoing events with greater accuracy.
Iām going to look at several of my own most notable mistakes or rushes to judgment over the past 18 months, and what can be learned from them.
The most obvious of these is the most recent: like most other observers, I was surprised by the first-round results of the Egyptian presidential elections. Towards the end of 2011, I became convinced that former Arab League chief Amr Moussa would be very difficult to beat because of his name recognition, status as a professional politician in a field of relative amateurs, and what I thought would be his ability to garner support from a wide range of constituencies.